A statistical model to predict ignition probability

Ignition capability is a critical design constraint for aeronautical gas turbines. However the current trend toward overall lean burn detrimental to engine ignition and relight system must be adapted ensure fast reliable light-round in all circumstances. As stochastic phenomenon, optimization of an requires build probability maps, which difficult costly with either experiment or numerical simulation as both require many tests. This work proposes model predict map, knowing only flow statistics non-reacting conditions, i.e., one test. The originality construct flame kernel trajectory, are then combined local indicators evaluate at considered sparking location. Application swirled burner operated premixed, non-premixed spray combustion modes illustrates concepts demonstrates its ability recover experimental map good accuracy.